A mere eight weeks in the past that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. When Rogers drilled in his second to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
It remains a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, despite the fact the victories have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have put together ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – but right now the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition managed more efforts and more efforts on goal. Villa have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club have to face over the coming weeks. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the force he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to regain fitness, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. When the match-winner stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
